55 things to know about the London election results

We've got 55 takeaways and a Conservative mayor ain't one

May 05, 2024

Morning — Sadiq Khan won big yesterday, despite the last-minute rumours of an upset. With the dust pretty much settled, we’ve picked out 55 things to know about London’s vote. Everything from what the final result tells us about the capital’s mood, to how the mayhem unfolded once polls closed, to all the reactions from the winners, the losers, and the very sore losers. And to cap it all off, we’ve compiled the pledges Khan made during the campaign, so you know what to look out for during his next four years. Your Sunday election round-up is down below.

👉 In case you missed it: We sent our first reader-funded piece on Thursday, a deep dive into how London nearly lost the Brixton Academy. Through the course of her 2,500-word report, Emma Wilkes explores how the south London venue came back from the seemingly impossible — the crowd crush in late 2022 that cost two people their lives. Along with attending the Academy’s first gig since it got the go-ahead to re-open, Emma’s dug into the night of the tragedy, the response from police and officials, and what others in London’s music scene make of it all. It’s been amazing to see so many of you sign up for a Spy trial so you can give it a read, and we’re excited about the next pieces your support will enable us to commission.

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Mayoral mayhem

Full results here

🔴 Sadiq Khan (Lab): 43.8% ✅

🔵 Susan Hall (Con): 32.7%

🟠 Rob Blackie (LD): 5.8%

🟢 Zoe Garbett (Green): 5.8%

⚫️ Others: 11.8%

🗳️ THE RESULT 🗳️

What to know about how London voted

1. Labour’s Sadiq Khan has won a third term as London mayor, coming well ahead of his main rival, the Conservative Susan Hall. Khan achieved 43.8% of the vote, vs 32.7% for Hall — a thumping victory that defied last-minute speculation of a close result. In terms of total votes, Khan got 1,088,225, versus 812,397 for Hall.

2. Khan’s lead of 11.1 points over Hall was his biggest yet. He beat Shaun Bailey in 2021 by 4.7 points, and Zac Goldsmith in 2016 by 9.2 points. It’s the second biggest lead for a mayoral winner since the office was created in 2000, only bested by Ken Livingston’s lead of 11.9 points over Steven Norris in the 2000 election.

3. There was an overall swing in London of 3.2% from the Conservatives to Labour. One caveat: that swing figure is compared to the first round of the 2021 mayoral election, which used a two-round voting system, versus this year’s first-past-the-post vote — more on that later.

4. Khan gained ground in parts of London that have previously voted Conservative. He came first in the West Central constituency (Westminster, Hammersmith & Fulham, Kensington & Chelsea) and the South West constituency (Hounslow, Kingston-upon-Thames, Richmond-upon-Thames). All of these areas were won by the Conservatives at the last election.

5. ULEZ didn’t seem to be the political secret weapon Hall and the Tories had hoped. Hall, who had pledged to scrap Khan’s ULEZ expansion on “day one”, didn’t see any gains in the parts of outer London where the expansion has been controversial. The first disappointing result for Hall was Bexley and Bromley, which saw a 0% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, triggering alarm bells. But then even more damning was Ealing and Hillingdon, an outer London constituency which swung towards Khan. The result was particularly symbolic, as the area includes Uxbridge, the constituency that Labour failed to win in a by-election last year and triggered all sorts of internal party drama over Khan’s ULEZ expansion.

6. It also seems Khan wasn’t significantly affected by Labour’s stance on Gaza, unlike counterparts in other local elections this week. Labour lost seats on councils also with elections on Thursday in areas with many Muslim voters, and several figures in the party have pointed to Israel’s war in Gaza as a factor. But in a sign it may not have been as important in London, Khan saw his biggest swing in the election in the City of London & East constituency, which includes the large Muslim communities in Tower Hamlets. Khan was among the first Labour politicians to call for a ceasefire in Gaza in the weeks after October 7, defying the Labour leadership’s position at the time.

7. Khan’s pleas for third party voters to back him apparently paid off. Ahead of the election, Khan had issued multiple calls for Green and Liberal Democrat voters to ‘lend’ him their support, in light of the new first-past-the-post voting system, which could have meant a split progressive vote. In previous elections, Londoners have been able to give a second preference, meaning Khan was topped up at the second round. In the end, both parties saw their vote shares decline this year compared to last, suggesting a tactical switch to Labour.

8. The Liberal Democrats came in third place, beating the Greens. The Greens have come third in every London mayoral election since 2008, so this year’s result has particularly delighted Lib Dems. It was incredibly tight though — both ended up with 5.8% of the vote, with Lib Dem Rob Blackie on 145,184 votes and Green Zoe Garbett on 145,114.

9. Khan will now be London’s longest serving mayor. It’s the first time someone has served three terms — both Livingstone and Boris Johnson only served two.

10. Turnout was 40.5%, only slightly down on the 42% turnout seen in 2021. That was a surprise to some, as this year’s mayoral election was the first since the introduction of new voter ID laws, which many had speculated could dampen turnout.

11. Opinion polls ahead of the election ended up somewhat accurate. Khan’s lead of 11.9 points isn’t too far off what the last few polls were predicting — as low as 10 points and as high as 19.

12. It turns out the leader of Hall’s own party, prime minister Rishi Sunak, passed on the chance to vote for her. Sunak, as resident of No. 10 Downing Street, was eligible to vote in the London mayoral election, but a spokesperson for prime minister revealed on Saturday that he had instead opted to use a postal vote for elections in Yorkshire.

13. Satirical candidate Count Binface beat the candidate for Britain First, the far-right, anti-immigration party. That’s delighted the Count.

14. Coming in last place was poor old Brian Rose. The independent, Gotham mayor body double had managed to come 7th in 2021, but Rose finished 13th this time.

🥴 THE RUN-UP 🥴

How the campaign ended — and about those rumours…

15. During the final few days of campaigning, the Conservatives faced controversy over involvement with anti-ULEZ Facebook groups. An investigation published by the Guardian last Saturday claimed Conservative party staff and activists had been secretly operating a network of groups “riddled with racism and abuse”, in many cases acting as forums for Islamophobic attacks on Khan. A day after the exposé, Hall seemed unrepentant, with her official Facebook account joining one of the groups, having been a member of several already. Khan reacted by telling the Guardian the groups “could have a direct impact on not just my safety but the safety of my family and staff”.

16. A member of Labour’s front bench — shadow health secretary Wes Streeting — also caused some last-minute controversy. On the eve of the election, he posted to X: “A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over”. It led to accusations Streeting was saying anyone who voted for Hall was “racist”.

17. The true mayhem began on Friday though, when speculation that the result was going to be close — or that Hall might even win — went wild. If you logged onto social media on Friday — before counting the London mayoral election had even begun — you would have seen growing delight from some quarters, and fears from others, that Hall was about to pull off a surprise upset in the race.

18. Early figures on turnout by in different parts of London helped spark the rumours. After polls closed on Thursday, London’s counting centres began verifying ballots on Friday, meaning turnout figures were published by the afternoon. Though the actual vote counting wasn’t due to begin the 9am the next day, the way the turnout figures were stratified across London — high in the outer parts of the capital, lower in central — suggested Khan was about to be hit by the double blow of ULEZ and Gaza. Of course, the actual results from outer London proved otherwise.

19. Some have also blamed media briefings from “overexcited” local Tory activists in London. But the rumours made their way further up the politico chain, with Sky News correspondents reporting they had been briefed by “key figures” in both the Conservatives and Labour that the result would be narrower than expected. In the extreme, some wondered if this was all a deliberate strategy to sow doubt about the final result.

20. The speculation was promptly killed off by midday Saturday though, as the first results came in. Labour HQ was the first to declare victory for Khan — before even the BBC’s John Curtice made his result projections — once it became clear he had taken the areas of South West and West Central London from the Conservatives.

21. Now, several mainstream political journalists are now taking flak for their part in the speculation. Most prominently is the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, who by Friday evening had said “it is clear tonight that the race is much much closer than some polls had suggested”. Comments from Sun and Mail journalists have also been criticised.

📣 THE REACTION 📣

Who’s the sorest loser?

22. Khan used his victory speech on Saturday afternoon to criticise the “negativity” of Hall’s campaign. He began by saying it was “the honour of my life to serve the city that I love”, then he took a swipe at his rival’s approach: "We faced a campaign of non-stop negativity, but I couldn't be more proud that we answered the fearmongering with facts, hate with hope, and attempts to divide with efforts to unite”. As he continued, Hall could be seen in the background shaking her head and visibly fuming: “We ran a campaign that was in keeping with the spirit and values of this great city, a city that regards our diversity not as a weakness, but as an almighty strength — and one that rejects right hard-wing populism and looks forward, not back”

23. Ironically, just before starting his speech, Khan was heckled by Britain First’s candidate, who shouted “Khan killed London” before walking off stage. Some members of the crowd at the declaration in City Hall also booed as Khan tried to speak, until the returning office finally regained control.

24. Khan also struck a personal note in his speech, apologising to his wife and daughters for “the toll” his job had taken on them. He said: “Some of the stuff on social media, the protests by our home, the threats — it’s upsetting, it’s frightening and it’s wrong. I am truly sorry for putting you through this”.

25. In her concession speech, Hall said that she wished Khan would stop “patronising” people who care about London. She said:

“The thing that matters the most, and to me, is reforming the Met and making London safe again. I hope Sadiq makes this his top priority.
“He owes it to the families of those thousands of people who have lost lives to knife crime under his mayoralty.
“And I hope too that he stops patronising people, like me, who care. This isn’t an episode of The Wire, this is real life on his watch.”

26. Nevertheless, Tory recriminations over the choice of Hall as their party’s candidate in the first place have now begun. Leading the charge was MP Paul Scully, formerly the government’s minister for London and at one point a contender to be the Conservatives’ candidate for mayor, before failing to make the shortlist. He told Sky News that the Tories’ “dysfunctional” selection process for Hall had led to her campaign “just moaning” about Khan. “You’ve got to be on the stage articulating a positive vision”. That sentiment was echoed by a Conservative MP who spoke anonymously to the Guardian: “In London there’s been no positive vision and Hall is hardly a local champion. She has only set out what she won’t do.”

27. Others in the Conservatives have stood up for Hall though, despite her loss. One Tory source told the Standard that Hall “is performing better than the party generally. It’s not enough to win, but she’s defying the opinion polls”. To be fair, Hall’s result of 33% of the vote is better than the projected Conservative vote share from the rest of the local elections in England, which clocked in at 25%.

28. And there are those that say Khan’s performance swing could have been higher. “Worth pointing out that winning London mayoral race by 10pts (Curtice projection) when your party is 26pts ahead nationally and 34pts ahead in your city (YouGov) would be an utterly awful performance,” argues Robert Colvile, director of the Centre for Policy Studies.

29. Still, Labour leader Keir Starmer was pleased. He congratulated Khan by saying: “Londoners have voted for delivery over headlines, hope over fear, and unity over division. I look forward to working with him as he continues to deliver for London.”

30. Indeed, with a third term secured, some are already turning their minds to what Khan will do if Labour wins this year’s general election. Greater rail devolution or a big expansion to council housing, wonder some. Shortly after the win, Khan himself told LBC: “I think Londoners will see a transformed city with a Labour mayor working with a Labour government.”

31. Predictably, there have been some extreme comments about Khan’s victory from his most fervent haters. “Four more years of the divisive and hate-filled Sadiq Khan. London will continue its rapid decline. Many folk, including me, won’t be here by the next election,” writes right-wing commentator Dan Wootton. And a particularly dire comment from Howard Cox, Reform UK’s mayoral candidate, who came fifth with 3.2% of the vote. Cox reportedly said he never expected to win because “London is a different country”.

32. Actor turned right-wing activist Laurence Fox also had plenty to say about Khan, but he had his own poor result to deal with. Having failed to get on the mayoral ballot due to errors in his forms, Fox stood for the London Assembly instead. He received just 13,795 votes, equivalent to 0.005%, which means he’s losing his £5,000 deposit.

📄 THE OTHER RACES 📄

Bits and pieces from the other London elections on May 2

33. As of writing, we still don’t have the full London Assembly results, only the ones elected to represent constituencies via first-past-the-post. They show that Labour gained one seat, for a total of ten, that the Conservatives lost two seats, for a total of three, and the Lib Dems gained one, for a total of one.

34. Counting is now underway for the ten other Assembly seats, that are allocated via a top-up system. They should be announced by the end of Sunday.

35. A small number of borough council by-elections stopped the Conservatives being completely steamrolled in London. That included Tory gains from Labour in Wandsworth and Sutton.