The pocket of London that could elect a Reform MP

Here's your London election eve guide, ft a minute-by-minute results schedule, expectations of historic Tory losses in the capital, and the east London seat where Reform are now in with a shot

Evening — polls open in a matter of hours, and then London Conservatives will soon know their fate: are they about to be wiped out across the capital? 

Nearly, according to the final YouGov seat-by-seat forecast published at 5pm today. This election eve, we’ve used the mega poll to compile a minute-by-minute guide to results night for Londoners, breaking down when we’re getting the capital’s key declarations after polls close at 10pm tomorrow. And if you aren’t staying up, well, it’s like you did anyway.

At a glance:

• The Tory seat in central London that’s potentially voting Labour for the first time in 70 years (skip to 3.30am)

• The moment of truth for Corbyn and London’s other independent candidates (skip to 3am)

• The orange wave hitting south London (skip to 3.45am)

• The east London seat where Reform is now within a polling error of victory (skip to 4.00am)

We’re using some symbols throughout the piece to represent YouGov’s final forecast, which predicts a record-breaking Labour majority nationally. It was conducted over the past two weeks with a sample size of 42,000 UK adults, and it uses modelling techniques to generate individual constituency outcomes. For each London seat, we’ve summed up the forecast with:

• 🔴 Labour re-elected | 🔵 Conservative re-elected | 🟠 Lib Dem re-elected

• 🔵→🔴 Labour gain from the Conservatives | 🔵→🟠 Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives

• We’ve also highlighted the key London results to really look out for in bold 

Let’s get started:

1.30AM — AN OLD BRIGHT SPOT

Putney 🔴 | Tooting 🔴

Two constituencies in south London are expected to be the first to declare in the capital. Both are currently held by Labour and both are forecast to stay that way.

One is Putney, a significant seat because it was the only constituency in the entire UK that Labour managed to gain from the Conservatives in the 2019 election, amid the party’s worst national result since 1935. The seat had previously been held by Tory MP Justine Greening, former education secretary and at times a rumoured candidate for London mayor, though she never officially stood. Labour increasing its 9.4% majority in Putney this election would suggest the southeast London seat didn’t just turn red last time for Jeremy Corbyn. 

The other constituency declaring in this window is Tooting, where a Labour hold would mean the re-election of Rosena Allin-Khan. She’s a doctor who continues to work A&E hospital shifts alongside her job as an MP, and gained recent recognition for quitting Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet last year in protest at the party leadership’s lack of interest in mental health policy.  

2.00AM — GHOSTS OF LABOUR PAST